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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 16 at the 60

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Denver Broncos 45

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen sacked at ARI 32 for -8 yards (55-B.Chubb). ARI-3-J.Rosen was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.86 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -2.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 19, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.67 EP