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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 25

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 4-P.Dawson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.64 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model