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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 66

Denver Broncos 14 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 3-C.Wadman punts 39 yards to ARI 27, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk. PENALTY on DEN-42-C.Kreiter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 27.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.61 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 24, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP