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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 19

Los Angeles Rams 12 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 4-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.92 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 19, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model