4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
LA Away

Los Angeles Rams

7-0 HC Sean McVay
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

1-6 HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2018-10-21 · 16:25 ET Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread -8.0 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

LA
56.7%
SF
43.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.158 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: C.J. Beathard (SF) -0.108 vs Jared Goff (LA) +0.241 EPA/dropback
  • LA defense: +0.008 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

LA 26 19–33
–
SF 22 15–29
Projected margin: LA by 4 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 7

LA

Cooper Kupp WR Out Knee

SF

Dante Pettis WR Out Knee
Jimmie Ward CB Doubtful Hamstring
Richard Sherman CB Questionable Calf
Pierre Garcon WR Questionable Shoulder
Trent Taylor WR Questionable Back
K'Waun Williams CB Questionable Shoulder
Ahkello Witherspoon CB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 39
–
SF 10

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:38 FG LA (6:38) 4-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 3 – SF 0
  • Q2 14:24 TD LA (14:24) 30-T.Gurley left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – SF 0
  • Q2 13:03 SAF LA (13:03) 5-B.Pinion punt is BLOCKED by 58-C.Littleton, Center-86-K.Nelson, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. LA 12 – SF 0
  • Q2 10:08 FG LA (10:08) 4-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 15 – SF 0
  • Q2 02:36 TD LA (2:36) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 12-B.Cooks for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 21 – SF 0
  • Q2 00:16 TD SF (:16) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short left to 85-G.Kittle to LA 1 for 9 yards (23-N.Robey, 41-M.Christian) [90-M.Brockers]. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass short left to 85-G.Kittle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-M.Brockers]. Caught in end zone - 0-YAC LA 22 – SF 6
  • Q3 08:09 FG LA (8:09) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 25 – SF 7
  • Q3 06:06 TD LA (6:06) (No Huddle) 30-T.Gurley left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 31 – SF 7
  • Q3 02:42 FG SF (2:42) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. LA 32 – SF 10
  • Q4 11:44 TD LA (11:44) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 30-T.Gurley for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF-56-R.Foster was injured during the play. Caught at SF 15. 15-YAC LA 38 – SF 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to SF 24, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 13-R.James to SF 30 for 6 yards (59-M.Kiser).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 93%

    (6:38) 4-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:21) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to SF 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:03) 5-B.Pinion punt is BLOCKED by 58-C.Littleton, Center-86-K.Nelson, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LA 4th & 8 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 91%

    (10:08) 4-G.Zuerlein 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (13:03) 5-B.Pinion punts 34 yards to LA 35, Center-86-K.Nelson. 19-J.Natson to SF 46 for 19 yards (48-F.Warner). PENALTY on LA-54-B.Hager, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 35. Penalty on LA-36-D.Hatfield, Unnecessary Roughness, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LA 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 94%

    (8:09) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SF 4th & 15 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 70%

    (2:42) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 17 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 58%

    (13:51) 6-J.Hekker punts 29 yards to SF 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-R.James.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 16 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:29) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to SF 49, Center-86-K.Nelson. 19-J.Natson pushed ob at SF 13 for 36 yards (88-G.Celek).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 14 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:21) 5-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to LA 15, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (5:30) 6-J.Hekker punts 2 yards to LA 37, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA. Punt deflected by 53-M.Nzeocha.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 SF 4th & 13 at the 18 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%

    (3:32) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass incomplete deep left to 81-T.Taylor.

    See the full breakdown →