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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 69

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 22

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 5-B.Pinion punts 34 yards to LA 35, Center-86-K.Nelson. 19-J.Natson to SF 46 for 19 yards (48-F.Warner). PENALTY on LA-54-B.Hager, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 35. Penalty on LA-36-D.Hatfield, Unnecessary Roughness, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 69, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 27, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model