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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 15 at the 33

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Los Angeles Rams 32

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 9-R.Gould 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.87 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model