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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 17 at the 38

Los Angeles Rams 32 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:51) 6-J.Hekker punts 29 yards to SF 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.40 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 38, worth -2.02 EP
KICK -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model