Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 16 at the 97

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 32

(12:29) 5-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to SF 49, Center-86-K.Nelson. 19-J.Natson pushed ob at SF 13 for 36 yards (88-G.Celek).

The Three Options

GO -3.78 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.98 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 97, worth -6.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model