Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 69

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 39

(9:21) 5-B.Pinion punts 54 yards to LA 15, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.21 EP
69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 69, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model