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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 18

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 39

What Actually Happened

(3:32) (Shotgun) 3-C.Beathard pass incomplete deep left to 81-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.55 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 18, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.74 EP