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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 17

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 4-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.86 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP