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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 61

Los Angeles Rams 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:21) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to SF 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.93 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP