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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 84

Minnesota Vikings 10 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 6-M.Wile punts 42 yards to NYJ 42, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.28 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 84, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 42, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model