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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2018-10-21 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 💨 Windy Spread -3.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

MIN
42.7%
NYJ
57.3%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.118 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (MIN): -0.054 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIN offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

MIN 21
–
NYJ 22
Projected margin: NYJ by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

MIN

Dalvin Cook RB Out Hamstring
Everson Griffen DE Out Not Injury Related
Riley Reiff T Out Foot
Andrew Sendejo S Out Groin
Linval Joseph DT Questionable Knee

NYJ

Quincy Enunwa WR Out Ankle
Marcus Maye S Out Thumb
Buster Skrine CB Out Concussion
Trumaine Johnson CB Doubtful Quadricep
Kevin Pierre-Louis LB Doubtful Foot
Terrelle Pryor WR Doubtful Groin
Isaiah Crowell RB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 37
–
NYJ 17

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:28 TD MIN (13:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 01:05 TD NYJ (1:05) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 89-C.Herndon for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 10:16 FG MIN (10:16) 5-D.Bailey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. MIN 10 – NYJ 7
  • Q3 08:20 TD MIN (8:20) 25-L.Murray right guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 16 – NYJ 7
  • Q3 05:52 FG MIN (5:52) 5-D.Bailey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. MIN 20 – NYJ 7
  • Q3 02:44 FG NYJ (2:44) 2-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. MIN 20 – NYJ 10
  • Q4 13:46 TD MIN (13:46) 25-L.Murray right guard for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 26 – NYJ 10
  • Q4 10:32 TD NYJ (10:32) 14-S.Darnold up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 27 – NYJ 16
  • Q4 05:23 TD MIN (5:23) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 17-A.Robinson for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 33 – NYJ 17
  • Q4 03:26 FG MIN (3:26) 5-D.Bailey 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile. MIN 37 – NYJ 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (10:34) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to MIN 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:11) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to MIN 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 14 for no gain (40-T.Cannon).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (4:34) 6-M.Wile punts 41 yards to NYJ 14, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (14:56) 6-M.Wile punts 49 yards to NYJ 11, Center-47-K.McDermott. 19-A.Roberts MUFFS catch, and recovers at NYJ 7. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 7 for no gain (27-J.Kearse).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:12) 4-L.Edwards FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ -3, and recovers at NYJ -3. 4-L.Edwards punts 28 yards to NYJ 40, out of bounds. PENALTY on NYJ-51-B.Copeland, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 40.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (10:16) 5-D.Bailey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:09) 4-L.Edwards punts 58 yards to MIN 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 20 for 8 yards (46-N.Hewitt).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:03) 6-M.Wile punts 42 yards to NYJ 42, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 36%

    (5:44) 6-M.Wile punts 27 yards to NYJ 16, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:56) 4-L.Edwards punts 60 yards to MIN 22, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 33 for 11 yards (36-D.Middleton). NYJ-36-D.Middleton was injured during the play.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:51) 6-M.Wile punts 53 yards to NYJ 12, Center-47-K.McDermott. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 20 for 8 yards (24-H.Hill).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 4 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 83%

    (:47) 5-D.Bailey 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:31) 4-L.Edwards punts 31 yards to MIN 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 15-B.Zylstra to MIN 36 for 5 yards (46-N.Hewitt; 17-C.Peake).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (5:52) 5-D.Bailey 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 12 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 52%

    (2:44) 2-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:06) 6-M.Wile punts 66 yards to NYJ 8, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-40-K.Brothers.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:56) 4-L.Edwards punts 57 yards to MIN 36, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 35-M.Sherels ran ob at MIN 49 for 13 yards.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:55) 6-M.Wile punts 37 yards to NYJ 43, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 8 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 61%

    (5:23) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 17-A.Robinson for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 13 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 81%

    (3:26) 5-D.Bailey 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 31%

    (2:07) (Shotgun) 40-T.Cannon right end to MIN 39 for 6 yards (96-T.Johnson).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 23 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 84%

    (:51) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 40-T.Cannon to MIN 12 for 11 yards (40-K.Brothers).