Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 82

New York Jets 7 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 4-L.Edwards punts 60 yards to MIN 22, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 33 for 11 yards (36-D.Middleton). NYJ-36-D.Middleton was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.17 EP
62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 82, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model