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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 65

Minnesota Vikings 10 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 6-M.Wile punts 53 yards to NYJ 12, Center-47-K.McDermott. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 20 for 8 yards (24-H.Hill).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.99 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 65, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 23, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model