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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 37

New York Jets 7 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 2-J.Myers 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.39 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
What Happened
  • 52% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model