Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 74

Minnesota Vikings 20 – New York Jets 10

(1:06) 6-M.Wile punts 66 yards to NYJ 8, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-40-K.Brothers.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 74, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model