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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 25

Minnesota Vikings 34 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 5-D.Bailey 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-6-M.Wile.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.68 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 25, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model