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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 61

New York Jets 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to MIN 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 14 for no gain (40-T.Cannon).

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.87 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 61, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 20, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model