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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 30

Chicago Bears 10 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(12:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 80-T.Burton to NE 13 for 17 yards (23-P.Chung). Penalty on NE-27-J.Jackson, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.72 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT +0.90 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model