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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
Sunday 2018-10-21 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

NE
48.5%
CHI
51.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.121 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Tom Brady (NE): +0.167 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NE 22
–
CHI 23
Projected margin: CHI by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

NE

Marcus Cannon T Out Concussion
Malcom Brown DT Questionable Knee
Julian Edelman WR Questionable Heel
Josh Gordon WR Questionable Hamstring
Geneo Grissom DE Questionable Ankle
Rob Gronkowski TE Questionable Ankle
Jacob Hollister TE Questionable Hamstring
Sony Michel RB Questionable Knee
Eric Rowe CB Questionable Groin
John Simon DE Questionable Shoulder
Deatrich Wise DE Questionable Ankle

CHI

Marcus Cooper CB Doubtful Hamstring
Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Ankle
Khalil Mack LB Questionable Ankle
Allen Robinson WR Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 38
–
CHI 31

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:05 TD NE (11:05) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-15-C.Hogan was injured during the play. NE 6 – CHI 0
  • Q1 03:55 FG CHI (3:55) 1-C.Parkey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. NE 7 – CHI 3
  • Q1 01:12 TD CHI (1:12) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky scrambles left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 7 – CHI 9
  • Q2 11:07 TD CHI (11:07) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 7 – CHI 16
  • Q2 11:05 TD NE 1-C.Parkey kicks 60 yards from CHI 35 to NE 5. 84-C.Patterson for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – CHI 17
  • Q2 04:04 TD NE (4:04) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 20 – CHI 17
  • Q3 12:10 TD CHI (12:10) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 29-T.Cohen for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 21 – CHI 23
  • Q3 07:52 FG NE (7:52) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 24 – CHI 24
  • Q3 06:05 TD NE (6:05) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 54-D.Hightower, Center-48-P.Scales, RECOVERED by NE-53-K.Van Noy at CHI 29. 53-K.Van Noy for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 30 – CHI 24
  • Q4 08:44 TD NE (8:44) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 28-J.White for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 37 – CHI 24
  • Q4 04:17 TD CHI (4:17) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 80-T.Burton for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 38 – CHI 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:46) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to NE 25, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-27-S.McManis.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (7:44) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to CHI 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 37 for 17 yards (35-K.Crossen).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 78%

    (3:55) 1-C.Parkey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 74%

    (12:49) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 80-T.Burton to NE 13 for 17 yards (23-P.Chung). Penalty on NE-27-J.Jackson, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:57) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to NE 33, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-J.Edelman to NE 36 for 3 yards (30-B.Cunningham).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 44%

    (6:46) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 10-J.Gordon to CHI 23 for 19 yards (23-K.Fuller).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (1:48) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to NE 7, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-J.Edelman MUFFS catch, and recovers at NE 4. 11-J.Edelman to NE 4 for no gain (15-J.Bellamy).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (:22) 6-R.Allen punts 53 yards to CHI 23, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds. PENALTY on NE-35-K.Crossen, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 23.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 5 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (7:52) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:05) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 54-D.Hightower, Center-48-P.Scales, RECOVERED by NE-53-K.Van Noy at CHI 29. 53-K.Van Noy for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (1:30) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to CHI 24, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds. PENALTY on CHI-22-K.Toliver II, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 24.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 20 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:54) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to CHI 43, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 33 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.75 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 68%

    (:30) 6-R.Allen punts 33 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.