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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 42

New England Patriots 14 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(6:46) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 10-J.Gordon to CHI 23 for 19 yards (23-K.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.88 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 42, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.15 EP
PUNT -1.07 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model