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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 57

Chicago Bears 17 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to NE 7, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-J.Edelman MUFFS catch, and recovers at NE 4. 11-J.Edelman to NE 4 for no gain (15-J.Bellamy).

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.37 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 57, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP