Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 76

New England Patriots 21 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(:22) 6-R.Allen punts 53 yards to CHI 23, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds. PENALTY on NE-35-K.Crossen, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.39 EP
45% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 76, worth -3.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model