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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 11

New England Patriots 21 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(7:52) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.52 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP