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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 55

Chicago Bears 24 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 16-P.O'Donnell punt is BLOCKED by 54-D.Hightower, Center-48-P.Scales, RECOVERED by NE-53-K.Van Noy at CHI 29. 53-K.Van Noy for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.94 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 55, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model