4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 20 at the 94

Chicago Bears 24 – New England Patriots 38

What Actually Happened

(7:54) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to CHI 43, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -3.64 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.16 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 94, worth -5.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 52, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model