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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 28

Chicago Bears 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 1-C.Parkey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.67 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT +0.58 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model