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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 59

New Orleans Saints 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:39) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to BAL 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-52-C.Robertson.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.37 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 59, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model