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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2018-10-21 · 16:05 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US 💨 Windy Spread 2.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

NO
52.8%
BAL
47.2%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.172 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.184 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Drew Brees (NO): +0.270 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NO defense: +0.133 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • NO on 6 more days rest than BAL

Predicted Final Score

NO 23
–
BAL 22
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

NO

Andrus Peat G Out Concussion
Taylor Stallworth DT Out Ankle
Jermon Bushrod G Questionable Not Injury Related
Larry Warford G Questionable Back

BAL

Alex Lewis G Out Neck
James Hurst G Questionable Back
Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Thigh
Anthony Averett CB Questionable Hamstring
Anthony Levine LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 24
–
BAL 23

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 06:07 FG BAL (6:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. NO 0 – BAL 3
  • Q2 01:57 TD NO (1:57) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 82-B.Watson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – BAL 3
  • Q2 00:08 TD BAL (:08) Jackson in at quarterback. (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Jackson's first NFL touchdown. NO 7 – BAL 9
  • Q3 03:36 TD BAL (3:36) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – BAL 16
  • Q4 12:38 TD NO (12:38) 41-A.Kamara up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Saints scored first 2nd half touchdown allowed by Ravens this season. NO 13 – BAL 17
  • Q4 05:04 TD NO (5:04) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Brees throws 501st career touchdown pass. NO 20 – BAL 17
  • Q4 02:15 FG NO (2:15) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. NO 24 – BAL 17
  • Q4 00:28 TD BAL (:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 13-J.Brown for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 24 – BAL 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:30) (Punt formation) 7-T.Hill up the middle to NO 38 for 4 yards (40-K.Young). Fake punt and direct snap to Hill.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 16%

    (11:00) 9-D.Brees up the middle to NO 48 for 1 yard (93-C.Wormley).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 69%

    (7:52) (Shotgun) 22-M.Ingram right guard to BAL 26 for 5 yards (32-E.Weddle).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (5:02) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill FUMBLES (Aborted) at BAL 6, RECOVERED by BAL-97-M.Pierce at BAL 6. 97-M.Pierce to BAL 6 for no gain (60-M.Unger). Aborted play on pitch by Hill.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 11 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 19%

    (:26) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 38 yards to NO 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 41-A.Kamara.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:39) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to BAL 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-52-C.Robertson.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 61%

    (8:14) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 13-J.Brown to NO 21 for 13 yards (20-K.Crawley).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 3 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 94%

    (6:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 27%

    (11:09) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to NO 01, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-10-C.Moore.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:43) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to BAL 31, Center-49-Z.Wood. 27-C.Jones to BAL 39 for 8 yards (49-Z.Wood).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:28) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to NO 32, Center-46-M.Cox. 41-A.Kamara to NO 44 for 12 yards (27-C.Jones).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 91%

    (7:03) 9-D.Brees up the middle to BAL 17 for 1 yard (57-C.Mosley).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 36 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 56%

    (3:25) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short left to 83-W.Snead IV [57-A.Okafor].

  • Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 87%

    (2:15) (Field Goal formation) 3-W.Lutz 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.