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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 83

New Orleans Saints 7 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(7:43) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to BAL 31, Center-49-Z.Wood. 27-C.Jones to BAL 39 for 8 yards (49-Z.Wood).

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.86 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 83, worth -5.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 41, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model