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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 31

New Orleans Saints 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(7:52) (Shotgun) 22-M.Ingram right guard to BAL 26 for 5 yards (32-E.Weddle).

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.82 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 31, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model