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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 4

New Orleans Saints 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(5:02) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill FUMBLES (Aborted) at BAL 6, RECOVERED by BAL-97-M.Pierce at BAL 6. 97-M.Pierce to BAL 6 for no gain (60-M.Unger). Aborted play on pitch by Hill.

The Three Options

GO +3.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.03 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 4, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model