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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 51

Baltimore Ravens 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(:26) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 38 yards to NO 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 41-A.Kamara.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.36 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 51, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model