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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 60

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 5-M.Bosher punts 39 yards to NYG 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 15-Q.Henderson to NYG 42 for 21 yards (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.65 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 60, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 19, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model