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New York Giants

1-6 HC Pat Shurmur
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

3-4 HC Dan Quinn
Monday 2018-10-22 · 20:15 ET Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.5 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

NYG
27.8%
ATL
72.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.152 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.160 vs Eli Manning (NYG) -0.115 EPA/dropback
  • ATL offense: +0.083 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • NYG defense: -0.028 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • NYG on 3 more days rest than ATL

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NYG 21 14–28
–
ATL 26 19–33
Projected margin: ATL by 5 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 7

NYG

Jawill Davis WR Out Concussion
Patrick Omameh G Questionable Knee
Russell Shepard WR Questionable Neck

ATL

Matt Bryant K Out right Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 20
–
ATL 23

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 05:00 TD ATL (5:00) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 17-M.Hall for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – ATL 6
  • Q2 00:54 FG NYG (:54) 2-A.Rosas 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 3 – ATL 7
  • Q2 00:08 FG ATL (:08) 4-G.Tavecchio 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. NYG 3 – ATL 10
  • Q3 03:55 FG NYG (3:55) 2-A.Rosas 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 6 – ATL 10
  • Q4 15:00 FG ATL (15:00) 4-G.Tavecchio 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. NYG 6 – ATL 13
  • Q4 07:55 TD ATL (7:55) 26-T.Coleman right tackle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – ATL 19
  • Q4 04:52 TD NYG (4:52) 26-S.Barkley right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. NYG 12 – ATL 20
  • Q4 02:00 FG ATL (2:00) 4-G.Tavecchio 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. NYG 12 – ATL 23
  • Q4 00:09 TD NYG (:09) (No Huddle) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 13-O.Beckham for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 18 – ATL 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 16 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:37) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to NYG 11, Center-47-J.Harris. 15-Q.Henderson to NYG 19 for 8 yards (36-K.Ishmael).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 53%

    (8:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to ATL 1, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-30-A.Hamilton.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (2:05) 5-M.Bosher punts 45 yards to NYG 11, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 15-Q.Henderson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 14 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:25) 9-R.Dixon Aborted. 51-Z.DeOssie FUMBLES at NYG 44, recovered by NYG-9-R.Dixon at NYG 30. 9-R.Dixon punts 31 yards to ATL 25, downed by NYG-57-N.Stupar.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:36) 5-M.Bosher punts 39 yards to NYG 21, Center-47-J.Harris. 15-Q.Henderson to NYG 42 for 21 yards (28-J.Bethel).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 18 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (6:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to ATL 14, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (:54) 2-A.Rosas 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 89%

    (:08) 4-G.Tavecchio 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (11:44) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 82-S.Simonson (27-D.Kazee) [54-F.Oluokun].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 92%

    (3:55) 2-A.Rosas 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 74%

    (15:00) 4-G.Tavecchio 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to ATL 35, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 14-J.Hardy.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 38 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 61%

    (2:00) 4-G.Tavecchio 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

    See the full breakdown →