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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 13

New York Giants 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(:54) 2-A.Rosas 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.04 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 13, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model