Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 60

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New York Giants 0

(12:37) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to NYG 11, Center-47-J.Harris. 15-Q.Henderson to NYG 19 for 8 yards (36-K.Ishmael).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.45 EP
72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 60, worth -3.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model