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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 22

Atlanta Falcons 7 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(:08) 4-G.Tavecchio 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +3.04 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -0.09 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model