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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 32

Atlanta Falcons 10 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-G.Tavecchio 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.28 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 32, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 42, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model