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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 41

New York Giants 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to ATL 1, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-30-A.Hamilton.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.54 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 41, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.35 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model