4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 38

Atlanta Falcons 20 – New York Giants 12

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-G.Tavecchio 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +1.04 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 47, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model