Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 56

New York Giants 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 9-R.Dixon Aborted. 51-Z.DeOssie FUMBLES at NYG 44, recovered by NYG-9-R.Dixon at NYG 30. 9-R.Dixon punts 31 yards to ATL 25, downed by NYG-57-N.Stupar.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.97 EP
72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 56, worth -3.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model