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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 48

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Tennessee Titans 6

What Actually Happened

(9:51) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 43 yards to TEN 5, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-43-M.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.05 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP