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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
Sunday 2018-10-21 · 21:30 Wembley Stadium, London GB ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

TEN
23.1%
LAC
76.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • QB edge to LAC: Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.332 vs Marcus Mariota (TEN) -0.060 EPA/dropback
  • TEN offense: -0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.169 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.061 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • TEN crossing 6 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 19
–
LAC 29
Projected margin: LAC by 10 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

TEN

Will Compton LB Out Hamstring
Derrick Morgan LB Out Shoulder
Quinton Spain G Questionable Shoulder
Kenny Vaccaro S Questionable Elbow

LAC

Joey Bosa DE Out Foot
Kyzir White LB Out Knee
Travis Benjamin WR Questionable Foot
Caleb Sturgis K Questionable right Quadricep
Jatavis Brown LB Questionable Groin
Melvin Gordon RB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 19
–
LAC 20

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:47 FG TEN (9:47) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 3 – LAC 0
  • Q1 09:44 TD LAC (9:44) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 16-Ty.Williams for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 3 – LAC 6
  • Q1 01:51 FG LAC (1:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. TEN 3 – LAC 10
  • Q2 12:55 FG TEN (12:55) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 6 – LAC 10
  • Q3 13:52 TD LAC (13:52) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 81-M.Williams for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – LAC 16
  • Q3 09:46 TD TEN (9:46) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 12 – LAC 17
  • Q4 12:33 FG LAC (12:33) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. TEN 13 – LAC 20
  • Q4 00:35 TD TEN (:35) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 88-L.Stocker for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 19 – LAC 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (9:47) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 12 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:12) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to LAC 30, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 20-D.King pushed ob at TEN 13 for 57 yards (29-D.Cruikshank). PENALTY on LAC-32-J.Jackson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 32.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

    (1:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 94%

    (12:55) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 4 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 31%

    (9:51) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 43 yards to TEN 5, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-43-M.Davis.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (5:45) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 40 yards to TEN 19, Center-47-M.Windt. 25-A.Jackson to TEN 19 for no gain (43-M.Davis).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 5 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:07) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to LAC 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 20-D.King to LAC 34 for 12 yards (58-H.Landry).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (12:33) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 69%

    (8:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 44%

    (4:59) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 32 yards to TEN 11, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 25-A.Jackson.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 99%

    (:35) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 88-L.Stocker for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.