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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:07) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to LAC 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 20-D.King to LAC 34 for 12 yards (58-H.Landry).

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.18 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model