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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 33

Tennessee Titans 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(8:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.16 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model