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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 9

Tennessee Titans 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:47) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.84 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP